Because this new operating system will be the nail in the coffin for Microsoft. If you think Vista was a downward spiral, think again. Perhaps you’re wondering why I seem to think this will happen. I’ve got a few reasons and I think other alternatives like MacOSX and Linux will fill in the gap that is created by them.

1. Touchscreens

Touchscreen PCs were originally designed by HP waaaaay back in the 1980s. Multi-touch will not matter because it has something in common with those circa 1980 PC’s…it has to be touched.

The problem is, no one wants to touch their PC screen. Think of it…how often do you feel the urge to touch your CRT/LCD? In order for Microsoft to succeed here, they have to make a shift in the way each and every single user computes on a daily basis.

Now I’m sure they’re pointing to IPhone metrics and saying, “but touchscreen is the way to go! Look, the IPhone has it! It’s a huge success…we need to jump on that bandwagon before it leaves the station!” That makes sense until you think it through. The IPhone is a handheld that is already touched…adding touchscreens to it didn’t fundamentally change the operation of the unit.

So when this “fantastic” technology comes out in a few years, Microsoft will have to convince users that PC screens are meant to be petted heavily along with trying to convince users that hardware support is there…and as you know, hardware support is FANTASTIC for Vista so far.

2. Hardware Support

Microsoft’s track record with Vista means that consumers have and will have a vote of no confidence with hardware support. It’s another uphill battle to build confidence in consumers.

3. Upgrade Path

Microsoft has more Windows XP users than it is letting on. Vista isn’t the be all that ends all that they hoped for. This means that when Windows 7 comes out, there will need to be a ‘no hassle’ upgrade path from Windows XP. Upgrading to Vista wasn’t the most pleasant experience many people have had and I know that the Windows XP File and Settings Transfer Wizard was a kick to the groin. If Microsoft drops the ball on this one, it won’t matter how many fingers and toes you can touch on your screen.

Why Alternatives Will Fill the Gap

I think that all of these things Microsoft needs to accomplish to build confidence in their product is a massive problem. How does a single company accomplish all of these things without seeming desperate? It’s a hike that I don’t think Microsoft can make.

In the meantime, you can be sure that since IPhone already has multi-touch capabilities that it won’t be hard for them to push it to OS X to compete. You know that Linux already isn’t far behind with multi-touch technology. The difference is that both Linux and Mac have a good base for the embedded market where these things will flourish. Windows does as well…but the problem is that multi-touch will be a Windows 7 feature…which isn’t out in the embedded market.

Let’s also not forget the other things promised in the past from Microsoft from their new operating systems and these features were trimmed…so it has the deck stacked against it here too as features are dropped like hot potatoes.

Keeping this in mind, where is the innovation Microsoft? How are you going to convince consumers that they need to upgrade in order to fondle their PC screens they’ve been taught not to touch since learning to compute? I think this is more hype than anything else…and it the first hammer strike of the nail in the coffin.

Windows 7 – Touching Places it Shouldn’t originally appeared on Yet Another Linux Blog on May 28, 2008.

I love market share studies. They’re ultimately inaccurate. Yet many websites quote them and use them in drawing conclusions to appeal to readers. Good idea to get your click through rate to soar and score some cash on the old advertisements…

Most market share studies are most likely based on two things:

1. Computers that are sold and what operating system is pre-installed on the computer
2. Browser statistics

I’m going to assume that NetApplications, who published the chart, were using browser statistics…because it makes more sense than the pre-installed sales figures…which I would rate Linux much lower on since most OEMs do not feature pre-installed Linux. Browser statistics are inherently biased toward someone using a browser that communicates operating system data to the webhost. I have Konqueror at home set to display no operating system data (I can provide a reason for those that wonder why in comments…just ask). I could also set Konqueror to display FALSE data telling any host that I’m running Mac or Windows. So what’s the margin of error with possibilities existing like this? HUGE of course. Should we trust a “study” like this? Heck no. Would you trust a financial graph that was this accurate? You’re a brave soul if so.

Look at the perspective. The numbers are slanted. If you examine the growth of Linux and the growth of Mac quoted by Apple Matters:

“However, as is also being noted, it is the trend of these figures that bears consideration. In the last two years, OS X has seen continual growth, from 4.21% in Jan 2006 (the first month of figures), to 5.67% in December 2006, to 7.31% in December 2007.

In the same time, Linux’s percentage has risen from only 0.29% to 0.63%.”

So, Mac has just about doubled…almost. Notice that Linux HAS doubled. Interesting eh? So if this study is correct, Linux has seen more growth in the same time than Mac has by more than doubling. Most likely, this results in less users overall…but who cares?

I don’t care whether Linux takes over the world or not. I don’t care if the desktop is never ruled by Linux. I just like the freedom and choice it gives me.

I’m not against using Macs…I just think that Mac fans sometimes are more rabid than even open source zealots. Linux isn’t going anywhere. Linux doesn’t care about market share. Linux will always be used Linux is the future…whether we want it or not…because it’s open, free, and social and that appeals to people of all demographics regardless of income. Proprietary software will ALWAYS cater only to those that can afford it.

In closing, it’s my opinion that market share studies involving Linux should never be quoted. Linux has continually shown that it cannot be measured by the same means that proprietary operating systems are measured. Perhaps someday someone will devise a way to do this…until then the iPhone is sure kicking butt and taking names on that Playstation eh? Sony should be VERY afraid.

Is the iPhone killing the Playstation? originally appeared on Yet Another Linux Blog on January 11, 2008.